7
Accona
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2024-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2024 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 15/07/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/08/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 22/08/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/02/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/03/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |