4
Dr Schuster
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |