Gut Instinct
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 06/05/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 27/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |