2
Oliverio
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 09/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |