1
Puff'smagicdragon
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |