6
Rock The Red
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |