5
Runwithheart
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/06/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 24/09/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |