Dream Boy

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63

Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

88%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-12-18	Mahoning Valley	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2025-12-08	Mahoning Valley	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-11-20	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-11-05	Mahoning Valley	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-10-22	Mahoning Valley	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/10/2025	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
05/11/2025	2nd	25/1	0%	90%	+0.90
20/11/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
08/12/2025	6th	3/1	84%	50%	-0.34
18/12/2025	8th	33/1	0%	30%	+0.30