2
Lucy's First Song
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 23
Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |