1
Spring River
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 26
Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +21.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |