Cleatus

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 81

Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

88%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Thistledown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-25	Thistledown	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-15	Thistledown	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-20	Thistledown	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-04-28	Thistledown	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength98%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/04/2026	8th	12/1	37%	13%	-0.24
20/06/2026	7th	20/1	0%	25%	+0.25
15/07/2026	5th	14/1	26%	20%	-0.06
25/08/2026	5th	16/1	16%	20%	+0.04
07/09/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	60%	+0.07