6
Jace
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |