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2

Lowells Legacy

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 46

Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 24/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 53 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 53 par24/02C6OR 53C5 @ Mahoning Valley 16/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 56 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 6f 118 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 59 par2/04C6OR 59C6 @ Thistledown 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 57 parC6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 54 par20/06C6OR 54C6 @ Thistledown 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m 119 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 48 parC6 @ Thistledown 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f 119 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 45 par23/07C6OR 45C6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 50 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 50 parC6 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 42 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 42 par27/08C6OR 42projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-13Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-07-23Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-07-07Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-06-20Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-04-28Thistledown?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0228/0423/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/20264th4/179%70%-0.09
16/03/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
02/04/20263rd7/491%78%-0.13
28/04/20265th5/696%50%-0.46
20/06/20264th11/486%63%-0.23
07/07/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
23/07/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
13/08/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
27/08/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32