6
Rivers Run Fast
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 41
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 22% | -0.63 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |