4
Son Of A G Q
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 24
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |