1
Mellifluous
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |