Startdfromdabottom
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 95
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-09-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2023 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/02/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 28/02/2024 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 21/06/2024 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 19/09/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/10/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 25/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 09/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |