5
Vodka N Gingerale
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 90
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |