2
Win Me Over
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/05/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 25/06/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 11/09/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |