IvyArcIvyArc
3

Without Objection

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 95

Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Thistledown 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 99 · 6f 121 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 99 par21/08C7OR 99C7 @ Thistledown 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 101 · 6f 119 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 101 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 100 · 6f 118 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 100 par5/02C7OR 100C7 @ Oaklawn Park 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 94 parC6 @ Thistledown 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 96 · 6f 119 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 96 par11/06C6OR 96C5 @ Thistledown 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 97 parC5 @ Thistledown 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 98 · 6f 119 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 98 par28/07C5OR 98C8 @ Thistledown 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 97 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 6f 119 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 96 par2/09C8OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?3rd6th−3
2026-08-10Thistledown?3rd6th−3
2026-07-28Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-06-30Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-11Thistledown?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-14Oaklawn Park?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0814/0328/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20253rd15/890%50%-0.40
06/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
05/02/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
14/03/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
11/06/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
30/06/20263rd4/179%33%-0.46
28/07/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
10/08/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
02/09/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19