4
Gracie Dance
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |