5
High Summer
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 71
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 26/12/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |