1
We'll Do It Live
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |