4
Rascal Flash
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength71%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |