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5

Rich On The River

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 48

Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength89%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 17/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/09C6C6 @ Thistledown 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 45 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 43 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 43 par23/10C6OR 43C6 @ Mahoning Valley 25/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 41 · 6f Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 41 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 11/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 42 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 42 par11/12C6OR 42C5 @ Thistledown 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 47 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 47 parC5 @ Thistledown 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 46 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 46 par24/06C5OR 46C5 @ Thistledown 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 46 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 46 par29/07C5OR 46projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2026-06-24Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-05-28Thistledown?7th4th+3
2025-12-11Mahoning Valley?1st-1th+2
2025-11-25Mahoning Valley?2nd0th+2
2025-10-23Mahoning Valley?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0925/1124/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
06/10/20255th4/179%33%-0.46
23/10/20254th7/163%63%-0.01
25/11/20252nd9/276%83%+0.07
11/12/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
28/05/20267th16/116%14%-0.02
24/06/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
29/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47