Tough Cat

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63

Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength28%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-26	Thistledown	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2023-10-28	Mahoning Valley	?	11th	7th	+3	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -38.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/10/2023	11th	12/1	37%	9%	-0.28
26/08/2026	4th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66