3
Tyson's Lil' Star
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 17% | -0.78 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/10 | 98% | 67% | -0.32 |