5
Bucket List
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |