Coalminer's Kitten
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/02/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |