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4

Aryvesan

4yo Filly · 9-4

Toulouse · Prix De La Garonne Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#10

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Clairefontaine 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 13024/10C?C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 21/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f97y GS 122C0 @ Deauville 12/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 13212/12C?3 @ Deauville 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 1313 @ Chantilly 03/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 1303/033C0 @ La Teste De Buch 01/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1274 @ La Teste De Buch 03/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y GS 1243/0644 @ La Teste De Buch 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Gd 1314 @ La Teste De Buch 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 13026/084projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26La Teste De Buch46th6th0
2026-08-05La Teste De Buch47th7th0
2026-06-03La Teste De Buch415th15th0
2026-04-01La Teste De Buch?9th9th0
2026-03-03Chantilly313th13th0
2026-02-07Deauville36th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/107/023/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20254th18/15%73%+0.67
21/11/20255th17/255%67%+0.11
12/12/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
07/02/20266th18/15%64%+0.59
03/03/202613th28/10%8%+0.08
01/04/20269th25/10%47%+0.47
03/06/202615th40/10%7%+0.07
05/08/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20266th16/116%62%+0.46