6
Charm King
9yo Gelding · 9-1
Toulouse · Prix De La Croix Falgarde Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 15th | 11/1 | 42% | 7% | -0.35 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |