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3

Kirby

5yo Gelding · 9-4

Toulouse · Prix De La Croix Falgarde Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 23/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12723/02C5C0 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 10/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y Hvy 124C0 @ La Teste De Buch 01/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 1221/04C?3 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y GS 130C8 @ Dax 18/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 12318/05C84 @ La Teste De Buch 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y GS 1314 @ Dax 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m3f95y Gd 1318/0744 @ La Teste De Buch 05/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Gd 1314 @ Dax 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m3f95y Ver 13123/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Dax42nd2nd0
2026-08-05La Teste De Buch46th6th0
2026-07-08Dax43rd3rd0
2026-06-03La Teste De Buch42nd2nd0
2026-05-18Dax?13th13th0
2026-04-27Bordeaux Le Bouscat310th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0227/048/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20264th10/147%79%+0.31
10/03/202610th8/158%40%-0.18
01/04/20269th40/10%38%+0.38
27/04/202610th16/116%40%+0.24
18/05/202613th22/10%8%+0.08
03/06/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
08/07/20263rd3/184%82%-0.02
05/08/20266th10/382%58%-0.24
23/08/20262nd9/276%92%+0.15