3
Erala
2yo Filly · 9-2
Toulouse · Prix Des Violettes Maiden Stakes · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +25.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |