12
Dark Side Thunder
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 65
Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 11/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 10/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |