2
Flag Of St George
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Southwell | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 08/11/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |