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4

Hugh

3yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 77

Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran to a fair level on first 2 starts but was disappointing on qualifying run and failed to improve on switch to handicapping at Wolverhampton 47 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f Sta 1306/0444 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13329/0444 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 6f213y Sft 1309/0644 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f20y Std 131 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 79 par31/074OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Wolverhampton48th8th0
2026-06-09Salisbury49th9th0
2026-04-29Southwell42nd2nd0
2026-04-06Kempton44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0429/049/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -16.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20264th18/15%73%+0.67
29/04/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
09/06/20269th9/153%33%-0.19
31/07/20268th28/10%22%+0.22