10
Massimo Blue
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71
Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |