6
Tyger Bay
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |