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Underwriter

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 78

Yarmouth · Sea Deer Handicap · 6f 3y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won maiden/novice events over 6f at Ayr for Archie Watson last summer. Bounced back to form on second run for new yard with Ascot fourth in July but well below that level since. Now tried in cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 9.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 14/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark14/07/2025 · OR 87 par14/075OR 871 @ Goodwood 31/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 92 parC5 @ Deauville 14/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f101y Sft 125 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 92 par14/08C5OR 922 @ Sandown 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 91 · 5f10y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 20th of 22 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 90 par13/062OR 903 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 87 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 84 · 5f GF 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par25/072OR 842 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 82 par5/092OR 82projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot211th9th+2
2026-08-19York214th12th+2
2026-07-25Ascot24th2nd+2
2026-07-10Newmarket311th10th+1
2026-06-13York220th18th+2
2026-04-24Sandown28th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0724/0425/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
31/07/20258th22/10%13%+0.13
14/08/20259th5/174%38%-0.35
24/04/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
13/06/202620th80/10%10%+0.10
10/07/202611th100/10%9%+0.09
25/07/20264th100/10%75%+0.75
19/08/202614th18/15%28%+0.23
05/09/202611th28/10%9%+0.09