5
Faith In Florence
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 79
Yarmouth · British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -28.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |