Ashariba
5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 95
Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Goodwood | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/06/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 26/06/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/10/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |