9
Capichera
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 102
Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-15 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 04/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |