Della Pace
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 93
Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 10th | 10th | +0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Goodwood | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |