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Fairy Glen

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 112

Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

63%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart mare who won a pair of Group 2s in Meydan earlier in the year, latterly the 2m Dubai Gold Cup. Made a creditable return to Europe when ½-length fifth of 9 to Caballo De Mar in a blanket finish for the Prix Comtesse Vigier at Longchamp in May. Off since but this is a marked drop in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newmarket 03/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 98 · 1m4f Goo 125 · beat its mark03/08/2024 · OR 98 par3/081OR 98C1 @ ParisLongchamp 01/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 98 · 1m5f202y GS 124 · beat its mark01/09/2024 · OR 98 par1 @ Bath 10/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 101 · 1m6f Hvy 125 · beat its mark10/10/2024 · OR 101 par10/101OR 1012 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 100 · 1m6f44y Sft 128 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 100 par1 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 100 · 1m6f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 100 par9/101OR 1001 @ Lingfield 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 100 · 1m5f Std 131 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 100 parC0 @ Meydan 20/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m1f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 100 par20/02C?OR 100C0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 105 · 2m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ ParisLongchamp 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 112 · 1m7f90y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 112 par21/051OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-21ParisLongchamp15th4th+1
2026-03-28Meydan?1st1st+0
2026-02-20Meydan?1st1st+0
2025-11-20Lingfield11st1st0
2025-10-09Bath12nd2nd0
2025-09-12Salisbury22nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0812/0920/0221/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20243rd6/168%75%+0.07
01/09/20242nd5/174%90%+0.16
10/10/20244th3/184%63%-0.22
12/09/20252nd11/271%67%-0.04
09/10/20252nd9/276%92%+0.15
20/11/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
20/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/03/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
21/05/20265th9/153%50%-0.03