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5

Naga

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 95

Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with back-to-back 1m victories and enhanced her form further this season, scoring on return in 1¼m handicap at Doncaster in April. Far from disgraced in Group/listed company on her last 2 outings at up to 1½m but needs to pull out more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 05/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f23y Goo 1235/0452 @ Newmarket 15/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m GS 1284 @ Sandown 17/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 70 · 1m Sft 126 · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 70 par17/094OR 705 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 67 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 67 par3 @ Newmarket 22/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 72 · 1m Gd 121 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 72 par22/103OR 723 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 1m2f43y Goo 138 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m1f212y Goo 142 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 85 par9/054OR 851 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 86 par1 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m4f GF 132 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 95 par18/071OR 95projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newmarket16th6th0
2026-05-30Carlisle14th4th+0
2026-05-09Ascot43rd7th−3
2026-04-25Doncaster31st4th−2
2025-10-22Newmarket31st4th−2
2025-10-09Chelmsford City51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/049/109/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20255th4/179%20%-0.59
15/04/20256th7/163%17%-0.46
17/09/20255th7/282%0%-0.82
09/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
22/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
25/04/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
09/05/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
30/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
18/07/20266th11/271%38%-0.34