6
Orionis
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 96
Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |