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8

Sky Safari

5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 106

Yarmouth · EBF Stallions John Musker Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 1m 2f 23y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart sort with 6 wins on speed-favouring all-weather tracks, including a Lingfield Group 3 in February. Left poorly placed back on turf in Group 2 at Chester 11 weeks later and far from disgraced returning to the all-weather at Newcastle since given the severity of her stumble out of the stalls.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 24/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m GF 134 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 82 par24/054OR 822 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 23rd of 23 · OR 84 · 1m GF 118 · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Kempton 03/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark03/07/2025 · OR 84 par3/074OR 842 @ Kempton 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 89 · 1m Sta 127 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 89 par1 @ Lingfield 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 1m1y Std 128 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 97 par20/111OR 972 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 99 · 1m2f Std 136 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 99 par1 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 102 · 1m2f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 102 par21/021OR 1021 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 106 · 1m2f70y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 106 · 1m2f42y Sta 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 106 par26/061OR 106projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Newcastle13rd3rd+0
2026-05-08Chester18th8th+0
2026-02-21Lingfield11st1st+0
2026-01-17Lingfield22nd3rd−1
2025-11-20Lingfield11st1st0
2025-09-06Kempton21st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/056/0921/0226/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
18/06/202523rd10/147%0%-0.47
03/07/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
20/11/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
17/01/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
21/02/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
08/05/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
26/06/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12