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5

Love Beach

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 89

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap · 1m 1f 21y

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who improved to win on Nottingham reappearance in May. Backed it up with a good third at Goodwood in May and while his York run is easy to forgive, he shaped as though amiss at Sandown 18 days ago. Turned out relatively quickly with cheekpieces on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 30/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m37y Goo 13030/0543 @ Chester 11/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m2f70y Gd 123 · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m1f21y Sft 128 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 86 par17/093OR 864 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 84 · 1m75y GS 134 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 84 · 1m2f50y Sft 136 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 84 par29/104OR 844 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 91 · 1m1f197y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 91 par2/052OR 912 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 91 · 1m2f56y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 90 · 1m1f209y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 90 par29/082OR 90projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown211th10th+1
2026-06-12York210th9th+1
2026-05-02Goodwood23rd2nd+1
2026-04-08Nottingham41st2nd−1
2025-10-29Nottingham43rd4th−1
2025-10-08Nottingham43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/058/102/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
11/07/20255th11/486%33%-0.52
17/09/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
08/10/20253rd9/276%78%+0.01
29/10/20253rd11/486%50%-0.36
08/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
02/05/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
12/06/202610th7/163%40%-0.23
29/08/202611th14/126%0%-0.26