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13

Mythical Guest

6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap · 1m 1f 21y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is on a long losing run but was placed 6 times in 2025. Unable to put things to bed after hitting the front when third in a 10-runner race at Newmarket last month before being set a stiff task at Ascot (out of the weights). This more suitable back up in distance. Engaged 4.17 here Tuesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 01/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m GS 131 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 86 par1/113OR 862 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m3y Sft 134 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 84 par10/064OR 843 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 136 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m GF 136 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 80 par10/074OR 804 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m GF 136 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m GF 125 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par14/083OR 782 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 78 · 1m Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m2f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 78 par15/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth43rd4th−1
2026-09-04Ascot212th11th+1
2026-08-14Newmarket33rd3rd0
2026-07-18Newmarket44th5th−1
2026-07-10Ascot43rd4th−1
2026-06-19Newmarket39th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1119/0614/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
14/04/202610th8/158%0%-0.58
10/06/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
19/06/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
10/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
18/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
14/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
04/09/202612th40/10%8%+0.08
15/09/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09