Nizam
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 89
Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap · 1m 1f 21y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 2 | 23th | 22th | +1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 18/04/2026 | 23rd | 80/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 18/06/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/08/2026 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 8% | -0.34 |